Nigeria’s labour market is expected to experience uneven growth in 2026, with job creation concentrated in a few key sectors rather than spread across the entire economy. This projection is contained in the December 2025 Business Expectations Survey (BES) released by the Statistics Department of the Economic Policy Directorate.
The report highlights a clear difference between sectors that plan to expand their operations and those that intend to significantly increase hiring. While several industries are preparing for growth, not all of them are translating these plans into strong employment opportunities.
Strong Expansion Plans in Agriculture and Mining
Agriculture recorded the highest expansion outlook score at 75.4, indicating that businesses in the sector are planning to scale up production, invest in new activities, and increase output. Mining and Quarrying followed closely with a score of 75.0, reflecting strong confidence in the sector’s growth prospects. Construction also showed solid expansion plans at 70.8, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects and real estate development.
Market Services, which include trade, transport, and hospitality, posted an expansion score of 65.9, while Non-Market Services such as education, health, and public administration recorded 59.9. Manufacturing ranked lowest at 55.0, suggesting weaker growth expectations in Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Hiring Outlook Favors Mining and Construction
Despite agriculture leading in expansion plans, the sector does not top the list for job creation. Instead, Mining and Quarrying recorded the highest employment outlook score at 27.3, indicating the strongest intention to hire new workers in 2026. Construction followed with 26.0, reflecting continued demand for labour in infrastructure and building projects.
Non-Market Services ranked third with a hiring outlook of 24.3, while Agriculture posted 23.2. Market Services recorded 22.0, and Manufacturing had the lowest employment outlook at 18.7, raising concerns about job creation in the industrial sector.
Why Job Growth May Feel Uneven
Economists explain that expansion does not always translate directly into hiring. In agriculture, for example, growth may be driven by mechanisation, improved technology, and efficiency gains rather than large increases in labour. On the other hand, mining and construction are more labour-intensive, which explains their stronger hiring outlook.
This mismatch means that while some sectors are growing rapidly, the number of new jobs created may not be enough to absorb Nigeria’s expanding workforce. As a result, many Nigerians may not feel the full impact of economic growth in terms of employment opportunities.
Implications for Policy and Workers
The survey’s findings suggest that government policies should focus on supporting sectors that combine strong growth with high job creation potential. Investments in infrastructure, skills development, and mining regulation could help sustain employment in labour-intensive industries.
At the same time, efforts to strengthen manufacturing and market services could improve job prospects in sectors that currently show weaker hiring intentions. Without broader-based employment growth, Nigeria may struggle to reduce unemployment and underemployment in 2026.
Overall, the BES report indicates that Nigeria’s job growth next year will be sector-led rather than economy-wide, with mining, construction, and selected service sectors playing the biggest role in shaping employment trends.
Source: Statisense, Statistics Department, Economic Policy Directorate — December 2025 BES Report
