By Tony Emeka Nwosu
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.2% in the second quarter of 2025, prompting government celebration and optimistic headlines. But a closer look at the data tells a more complex story — one that highlights the country’s continued dependence on extractive industries and its struggle to diversify.
While the figure represents moderate growth, regional comparisons reveal that Nigeria’s performance lags behind its African peers. In the same quarter, Ghana’s economy grew 6.3% and Kenya’s 5.0%, both powered by diversified sectors far less reliant on commodities.
Communication strategist Eyitemi Adebowale, in a recent analysis shared on LinkedIn, argued that the numbers “change everything once you add context.”
According to her breakdown, Nigeria’s second-quarter growth was largely fuelled by an oil and mining surge: coal mining rose by 57%, oil and gas by 20%, and quarrying by 45%. The expansion, she noted, was less about productivity gains or innovation and more about a rebound in global energy prices.
By contrast, Ghana’s post-debt restructuring growth came from services and a broad base of sectors, while Kenya’s momentum was driven by agriculture, finance, and technology — areas that sustain growth independent of global commodity swings.
Adebowale pointed to a troubling pattern that has persisted for over a decade. During Nigeria’s last oil boom between 2011 and 2014, the country recorded annual growth rates of 7% to 8%. Today, despite similar conditions in the oil market, growth has slowed to barely half that pace. “Same fuel, half the speed,” she wrote, underscoring that the country’s economic engine remains tied to extractive performance, not structural progress.
The cost of this dependence is already showing. Manufacturing lost nearly 19,000 jobs in the second quarter, and chronic power failures are estimated to cost the economy $29 billion annually. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s top five growth sectors are all resource-based — a worrying signal for an economy that aspires to industrialize and compete globally.
In contrast, both Ghana and Kenya are demonstrating what Adebowale describes as “resilient growth models” — economies that expand even when commodity prices fall. “Nigeria grows when oil performs. Ghana and Kenya grow regardless,” she wrote. “That’s not a resource advantage. That’s a structural trap.”
Her analysis calls attention to what she terms “the real cost of celebrating extraction over production.” While oil and gas revenues provide short-term fiscal relief, they obscure deeper weaknesses — from low manufacturing competitiveness to inadequate energy infrastructure and weak linkages between the extractive sector and the rest of the economy.
Adebowale’s piece previews a broader discussion in her latest publication, which examines:
- Why Nigeria’s oil dependency keeps it “running in place” despite revenue windfalls,
- How Ghana and Kenya have built diversified economies less vulnerable to global price shocks,
- What sectoral data reveal about Nigeria’s economic future, and
- Why structural reform — not commodity cycles — will determine long-term growth.
As Nigeria celebrates its latest GDP numbers, the underlying message from analysts like Adebowale is one of caution. Growth without diversification, they warn, risks leaving Africa’s largest economy exactly where it has been for decades — running faster, but never truly moving forward.
Tags: #NigeriaEconomy #GDP #OilAndGas #EconomicGrowth #Diversification #Manufacturing #EnergyCrisis #Ghana #Kenya #AfricaEconomy #EyitemiAdebowale
